Chapter 1-1. What is Intuition?
Recommended Reading: 【Philosophy】 Chapter 1. What is Knowledge?
1. Overview
1. Overview
⑴ Intuition is implicit knowledge.
① It might be something expressed in numbers or probabilities rather than as explicit knowledge or propositions.
② Humans and AI have different implicit knowledge and can only communicate through explicit knowledge.
③ According to the book Supercommunicators: How to Unlock the Secret Language of Connection, communication is more effective when people’s brainwaves are similar, indicating a process of synchronization through social interaction. This is also an example of intuition.
④ Explicit knowledge can also help strengthen implicit knowledge. This is called indirect experience.
⑤ South Korea places excessive emphasis on explicit knowledge and undervalues implicit knowledge.
⑥ Of course, implicit knowledge also includes physical skills like riding a bicycle, which are controlled by the cerebellum.
⑵ There are three types of intuition in this world.
① Reading Intuition: Corresponds to Observation Haki in the manga One Piece. This intuition is related to humanities.
② Writing Intuition: Corresponds to Armament Haki in the manga One Piece. This intuition is related to social sciences.
③ Waiting Intuition: Corresponds to Conqueror’s Haki in the manga One Piece. This intuition is related to historical sciences.
④ However, such classifications are not strict, so even in the natural sciences, such intuition can manifest.
2. Reading Intuition
⑴ The most representative intuition is the ability to read a situation.
① All of my best decisions in business and life have been made with hearts, intuition, guts. Not the analysis. - Jeff Bezos
⑵ Instinct and intuition also need to be trained. Even those with a strong sense of intuition couldn’t predict my next move.
① I suppose it’s because instinct is nothing more than big data from the past.
○ The intuition for reading, in particular, is related to the functions of the limbic system, which can be observed even in lower animals.
② The assessment of intuitive judgments must be made through reasoning, as it is necessary to determine whether intuition requires training.
③ To strengthen your intuition, you need to trust yourself.
④ To strengthen your intuition, you must be ready to accept the truth.
⑤ It is also true that the more experience one has, the stronger their intuition becomes.
⑥ Solitude is highly effective in training instinct and intuition. Unfortunately, men have more opportunities to experience solitude than women.
⑦ Even people who believe they have strong instincts may become complacent in their current state and find that their intuition is no longer as sharp as it once was.
⑧ Just as someone who enters politics unprepared can easily fall apart, a person with weak intuition is easily overwhelmed by those with strong intuition.
⑶ Intuitive judgments are always faster than rational judgments. And time is always in short supply.
⑷ Understanding myself is also important.
① You need to know how to listen to your own voice and emotions. It’s common to mistake others’ opinions for your own thoughts.
○ In other words, you shouldn’t rely on others for value judgments, and intuition is also needed to distinguish whether it’s your own voice or someone else’s.
② Anger, self-defense, cognitive dissonance can interfere with our intuition.
③ One must acknowledge that, at least partially, others’ intuition may be correct.
○ For example, “That’s not what I meant, but others misunderstand me.” is partially wrong.
○ However, if you acknowledge that the other person’s intuition was correct and simply submit to it, you may lose your negotiating power.
⑸ Intuition also has direction and intensity.
① Conviction is also a type of intuition.
⑹ Isn’t precognitive dreaming also related to intuition?
3. Writing Intuition
⑴ Choice is far more important than talent.
① Gifts are easy. They are given after all. Choices can be hard. You can seduce yourself with your gifts. If you’re not careful and if you do, it’ll probably be to the detriment of your choices. This is a group with gifts. How will you use your gifts? What choices will you make? -
Jeff Bezos
⑵ Decisions are generally made based on one of three main cases.
① Mistakes made due to a failure to properly read the situation: These can be improved by training one’s intuition.
○ Decision-making is closely tied to game theory. As in a poker game where not knowing who the sucker is likely means it’s you, failing to read the situation can be a critical mistake when making decisions.
② Instinctive judgments made after correctly reading the situation: These may not lead to great success and can result in living a life driven by external forces rather than one’s own.
○ It is called Bayesian inference.
○ However, merely reading the situation through intuition does not allow you to change it.
③ Judgments made based on conviction after properly reading the situation: These carry risks, but if you can take pride in the decision itself, you’ll be able to recover even in the face of failure. Therefore, this is the kind of decision one should aim to make.
○ It is called logical reasoning or symbolic deduction.
○ Keep in mind that for some people, following inertia may itself be a form of conviction.
○ You can even intuit beliefs. That is, a choice based on conviction seems to refer to selecting a slightly less common option among opposing intuitions, but in the end, it is still just one of the intuitions.
○ For example, if you have experience succeeding through challenges, you might choose a challenging path even if the situation is not favorable.
⑶ Making decisions is inherently difficult.
① Life is a series of choices, and we don’t have much time.
② Because making wise decisions requires, first and foremost, an accurate reading of the situation.
○ Beliefs not based on truth cannot prevail.
③ Even decisions require fine-tuning. However, when reading a situation through intuition, the feedback you receive comes from what you feel. However, there are times when a decision offers no feedback at all. Therefore, logic and philosophy are important.
○ Example 1: “I fully understand this person, so I can treat them however I want” (×) → “I fully understand this person, so I want to help guide them in the right direction.” (○)
○ Example 2: Some people study for a certain exam for over ten years and still don’t understand what went wrong.
○ Example 3: The saying ‘more haste, less speed’ doesn’t always mean to take a detour. It implies that the apparent shortcut is not always the best solution.
④ The reason it is difficult to train intuition in decision-making is that it requires experiences that push beyond boundaries.
○ The intuition that ‘doing a lot of work leads to even more work, so one should work moderately’ is a weak intuition of decision. By doing a lot of work, one’s efficiency improves, allowing them to handle large amounts of work within a limited time, which leads to more opportunities and rewards, ultimately benefiting in the long run. To realize this, one needs to have the experience of truly doing a lot of work.
⑤ Once a decision is made, you must run full speed ahead without looking back to maximize its benefits.
⑥ In the end, it seems that there is no definitive answer to what the right decision is. This falls into the realm of Gödel’s incompleteness theorem, the domain of uncertainty, and the perspective of a dynamic worldview.
○ The reason there is no single correct decision is related to a pluralistic society.
○ The reason there is no single correct decision is that you can’t know the depth of the sea until you dive in. There is undoubtedly uncertainty, mathematically ensured by the theory of imperfection.
⑦ Sometimes, you don’t have to make a decision right away. In such cases, time will show you which choice is the right one.
⑧ The early stopping problem where Bayesian optimization is not applied
⑷ On conviction
① Definition of Conviction
○ The belief or conviction is intuition about oneself.
○ Conviction is a personal set of truths, but it also includes value judgments, so it is not always true, nor should it be.
○ Conviction is similar to imprinting.
○ Conviction is similar to passion.
○ Conviction strengthens a person from within, giving them the power to change their surroundings.
○ Strong conviction drives a person to take on more work, creating a “the more, the better” effect. For reference, the more work you do, the more exponentially the results tend to grow.
○ Conviction leads to the realization of new knowledge in a certain direction, thereby strengthening the possibilities and intuition in that direction.
○ Belief is important in discerning falsehoods.
○ Belief determines the direction of our lives.
③ Each decision made based on conviction shapes the course of our lives.
○ I hazard a prediction. When you are 80 years old and in a quiet moment of reflection narrating for only yourself the most personal version of your life story. The most compact and meaningful will be the serious choices you have made. In. the end, we are our choices. Build yourself a great story. -
Jeff Bezos
○ Even if it’s considered a successful judgment, it might be wrong according to my values. Therefore, value judgments take precedence over factual judgments.
○ Whether it’s a belief or an intuition, if it’s a decision I’ve made, I can accept it because it’s the life I’ve chosen.
○ Conviction leads to the realization of new knowledge in a certain direction, serving as a driving force for developing one’s own intuition.
○ Wouldn’t it be enough if each day’s choices bring joy and make us look forward to tomorrow? For a world that remains interesting forever.
④ Conviction and intuition are not opposing concepts.
○ Conviction is a driving force for developing one’s own intuition, so when the directions of conviction and intuition are similar, they create synergy.
○ Therefore, you should pay more attention to your own story than to others’ stories.
○ In general, good (or virtuous) convictions and intuition tend to point in the same direction. This might be why altruism exists.
○ If someone finds passion in their work, it’s likely that their conviction (which resembles their passion) and their intuition (about what they should do) are also aligned.
⑤ Why We Need Convictions, Logic, and a Sense of Cause
○ Isn’t it to stay grounded in the philosophy we’ve chosen and to maintain self-objectivity?
○ The theory isn’t wrong. It’s just that the world is dynamic and noisy.
⑥ Dynamic conviction is important. In other words, convictions should also change.
○ Intuition is also needed to distinguish whether a conviction is truly your own or one that has been instilled by others. For example, choosing not to marry (non-marriage) cannot, in itself, be considered a conviction.
○ When following the legacy, the benefits adhere to an all-or-none principle. When one takes a creative path, the benefits are proportional, meaning the rewards match the effort.
○ Dynamic beliefs are better than static ones. Therefore, beliefs should be abstract.
○ There is an appropriate number of beliefs one should hold. First of all, having beliefs is better than having none. If you have too few, you may lose your way when they fail to come true. But if you have too many, they may end up conflicting with one another.
⑸ On Challenges
① Not every challenge is rewarded.
○ However, even major failures come with the reward of cognitive awakening. It’s truly remarkable how well-designed this world is.
② The reason why we need to take on challenges
○ On average, taking on challenges tends to be beneficial.
○ People tend to underestimate potential gains and overestimate potential risks. Therefore, encouraging challenges is necessary to overcome this natural tendency. (ref)
○ Failing 5 times out of 10 is more beneficial than failing once out of 2.
○ Just as there is as much sky as there is earth, there is as much success as there is failure. And just as the sky is wider than the earth, success—though it may come less often than failure—ultimately brings rewards that make up for it.
○ It is also to discover talent or new possibilities.
○ There is an optimal ratio for taking on challenges.
○ This ratio is determined by the surrounding environment and an individual’s temperament. The optimal ratio can be found through intuition.
○ In childhood, the environment has a strong influence, but as we grow older, our own influence becomes greater.
○ It requires a high level of intuition to find the right balance between comfort and change. In this context, finding balance is similar to finding an optimal solution on a manifold.
○ Irrational decisions made in a state of excitement often lead to poor outcomes. This is a result of failing to properly utilize intuition.
○ Encouraging someone to take on challenges doesn’t mean recklessly charging into things that seem impossible. It means trusting the rules you’ve discovered for yourself.
○ I came across the fact that web usage was growing at 2300% per year. I had never seen or heard of anything that grew that fast. - Jeff Bezos
○ Through history, we can estimate the benefits of taking on challenges. This is also why governments should invest in R&D.
○ There aren’t as many difficult things in this world as one might think.
○ Challenges have a “the more, the better” effect. For example, it’s possible to work three times more and earn ten times as much.
○ Reference 1: Endogenous Growth Theory
○ Reference 2: The Law of Increasing Returns
○ Reference 3: In statistics, the variance of the sum of n independent random variables is only n times the variance of a single variable, whereas multiplying a single random variable by n results in a variance that is n² times larger.
○ Human growth is great, so there are infinite possibilities.
○ Important decisions that shape life may sometimes seem irrational at the time.
○ Shouldn’t this be understood not so much as a gamble, but as the intuitive discovery of a subtle signal that had not yet clearly emerged?
○ Courage is similar to curiosity or a sense of adventure. No matter how strong your intuition is, you can’t understand everything — that’s why irrational courage sometimes seems necessary.
○ You don’t know the depth of the sea until you dive in.
○ The path one forges through challenges can also shape their identity.
○ The history of our civilization has always been irrational. (ref)
○ Reckless challenges can make sense because a challenge is not just about luck, and the public’s prejudice notion that it is reckless can be wrong.
○ The existence of truth inherently makes decisions static, so making dynamic decisions is meaningful.
③ The target of a challenge
○ Courage is required even for a no-go decision. And intuition is needed when determining what constitutes a no-go.
○ People themselves are not the target of a challenge — they are too unpredictable. However, if the challenge itself feels like a source of pride, it’s worth pursuing.
○ Gambling is not the taget of a challenge. If we become addicted to gambling at a casino, it means the casino system is stronger than our intuition.
④ Respect to all who challenge, and blessings to those who overcome.
⑤ There are paths where I want to run at full speed without looking back.
○ I’ve always wanted to be an adventurer. And today I realized that I am already living that life.
○ At some point, I found myself enjoying the failures as well. After all, they are part of the adventure.
○ It’s more beneficial to the world to charge ahead at full speed on the path I want to take without looking back, rather than taking care of others.
⑹ On Courages
① Appropriate arrogance helps in facing challenges.
② How can a challenge approached with fear succeed? Sometimes, thinking lightly can lead to better outcomes.
③ If I believe it’s a flaw, it truly becomes one.
④ Think of yourself as a winner. Then you will win. - Donald J. Trump (ref)
⑺ On Attraction
① Many of the most important decisions in life are not made through numbers and analysis, but through instinct, intuition, attraction, and impulse. (ref)
② I hope the reason for my choices is not because I feel grateful or sorry, but because I genuinely like and am proud of the choices I’ve made.
③ A truly good decision is one made with full awareness of the possibility of failure — and one you can still be proud of, even if it fails.
○ Therefore, if you regret a failure you faced with your whole life on the line, it raises the question of whether you truly accounted for the possibility of failure in the first place.
4. Waiting Intuition
⑴ It is the ability to remain calm and patient when engaging with history.
① With this ability, one becomes indifferent to uncertainty.
② With this ability, one becomes less attached to personal relationships.
③ With this ability, the likelihood of success increases. Haste makes waste.
④ In politics, the side that reveals its impatience first ultimately loses the election.
⑤ “A gentleman’s revenge is never too late, even after ten years.”
⑥ This intuition is also related to the process of finding a lifelong partner.
⑵ Once you develop this intuition, you are finally qualified to be a king.
① This intuition creates a gravitational pull, drawing people to you without the need to overtly cherish them.
② It is also related to the charisma of religious, entrepreneur and political leaders.
⑶ This kind of intuition is not something one can easily acquire through experience.
① Countless failures inevitably accompany the journey toward this intuition.
② The waiting intuition can only be fully grasped by understanding the mechanisms of life and death, civilization and history. That is why philosophy matters.
③ When overwhelmed by the causality of history, one can easily fall into nihilism.
④ To strengthen the waiting intuition, you need to find a balance between present satisfaction and future anticipation for the long run.
⑤ The future of others is easier to predict than my own, because my hopes are involved.
⑥ I cannot easily recommend attaining this intuition because the journey to reach it can be extremely distressing. Even you could lose your life.
⑦ When intuition and arrogance come together in reading history, it’s easy to fall into a magical worldview.
⑷ One can even change fate by going against history.
① An intuitive understanding of history must come first in order to change fate.
② Human growth is remarkable—at times, powerful enough to alter causality itself.
Input: 2025.05.21 10:21